What if the Iraq - Iran war never happened?

Martyr's Monument, Baghdad

Today I’d like to engage in the first of many historical thought experiments.

Turn the clock back to 22nd September 1980, the start of the 8 year long bloody Iraq - Iran war. History tells us that the war was an absolute disaster for both sides, costing 500,000 casualties on both sides as well as setting back the economy of both states back many years. Neither side gained any advantage and the overall outcome was a stalemate. I suspect that this was the desired outcome from Iraq’s western backers. The war was more of a holding move, designed to keep Iran’s Shia power projection limited.

What if, however, the war was never fought? What sort of Middle East would we be looking at right now?

Trouble had been brewing between the two states for a number of years before the outbreak of hostilities. Iran had been backing Kurdish guerrillas in the north of Iraq. Border skirmishes between the two middle eastern countries were a common occurrence.

In my alternate reality, if I had been the Iraqi side I would have not engaged in direct hostilities against Iran. By stepping back and allowing Iranian provocation, Iraq could have claimed to be the victim of Iranian aggression and garnered much world sympathy as a result. Any future moves at self defence would have been viewed sympathetically by the international community as they could argue that they were only defending their own territorial integrity.

1975 Algiers Agreement between Iran and Iraq

Better still, if I had been the Iraqi leader I would have strongly pursued a peace treaty (instead of a war) arguing that the benefits of peace would far outweigh any armed conflict. Just imagine for a minute, the dividends that would have accrued over many years of stability. Two nations with huge hydrocarbon reserves could have grown their economies massively.

The combined hydrocarbon reserves of Iran and Iraq are mind boggling.

Take for example, cross border trade. Just imagine what 8 years of trade between the two nations would have done, vs 8 years of war. Even though one side is Arab the other Persian, it would have been in both partners interests to find common ground and grow prosperity and stabilise the region. Indeed, Shia pilgrims regularly travel to Iraq to visit holy sites, this is just one example where Iran and Iraq could have worked together.

As regards hydrocarbon reserves, even though each side has massive deposits they could have worked together to jointly develop shared fields or even work together on export routes. Instead of funding their 8 year war effort, the oil/gas revenue could have been diverted to building each country to a highly industrialised level.

If Iran and Iraq had not fought the war, they could have become what Dubai is now, but by orders of magnitude much greater than what the UAE has achieved.

Take Iraq at the end of the 1980s, we had the 4th biggest army in the world on paper. A ridiculous statistic for a nation of only 30 million or so. A military far bigger than what was needed. This money could have been better spent on developing the nation and still having a decent military, albeit a slimmed down and more professional version.

By the end of the 1980s, Iraq's army was far bigger than what was needed, and a huge drain on GDP.

Militarily, they could have even worked together on joint war games to ensure peace within the region. Previous attempts at creating an Arab Union of sorts have proven fruitless, however if both sides had chosen peace over war, the region could have looked very different in 2022. Even though Iran strictly speaking is Persian not Arab, it makes sense to keep on good terms with your neighbours.

Alas, we will never know.